Arctic sea ice retreat fuels boreal forest advance.

Climate-induced northward advance of boreal forest is expected to lessen albedo, alter carbon stocks, and replace tundra, but where and when this advance will occur remains largely unknown. Using data from 19 sites across 22 degrees of longitude along the tree line of northern Alaska, we show a stronger temporal correlation of tree ring growth with open water uncovered by retreating Arctic sea ice than with air temperature. Spatially, our results suggest that tree growth, recruitment, and range expansion are causally linked to open water through associated warmer temperatures, deeper snowpacks, and improved nutrient availability. We apply a meta-analysis to 82 circumarctic sites, finding that proportionally more tree lines have advanced where proximal to ongoing sea ice loss. Taken together, these findings underpin how and where changing sea ice conditions facilitate high-latitude forest advance.

Sufficient conditions for rapid range expansion of a boreal conifer.

Unprecedented modern rates of warming are expected to advance boreal forest into Arctic tundra1, thereby reducing albedo2-4, altering carbon cycling4 and further changing climate1-4, yet the patterns and processes of this biome shift remain unclear5. Climate warming, required for previous boreal advances6-17, is not sufficient by itself for modern range expansion of conifers forming forest-tundra ecotones5,12-15,17-20. No high-latitude population of conifers, the dominant North American Arctic treeline taxon, has previously been documented5 advancing at rates following the last glacial maximum (LGM)6-8. Here we describe a population of white spruce (Picea glauca) advancing at post-LGM rates7 across an Arctic basin distant from established treelines and provide evidence of mechanisms sustaining the advance. The population doubles each decade, with exponential radial growth in the main stems of individual trees correlating positively with July air temperature. Lateral branches in adults and terminal leaders in large juveniles grow almost twice as fast as those at established treelines. We conclude that surpassing temperature thresholds1,6-17, together with winter winds facilitating long-distance dispersal, deeper snowpack and increased soil nutrient availability promoting recruitment and growth, provides sufficient conditions for boreal forest advance. These observations enable forecast modelling with important insights into the environmental conditions converting tundra into forest.

Alpine treeline ecotones are potential refugia for a montane pine species threatened by bark beetle outbreaks.

Warming-induced mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; MPB) outbreaks have caused extensive mortality of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis; WBP) throughout the species' range. In the highest mountains where WBP occur, they cross alpine treeline ecotones (ATEs) where growth forms transition from trees to shrub-like krummholz, some of which survived recent MPB outbreaks. This observation motivated the hypothesis that ATEs are refugia for WBP because krummholz growth forms escape MPB attack and have the potential to produce viable seed. To test this hypothesis, we surveyed WBP mortality along transects from the ATE edge (locally highest krummholz WBP) downslope into the forest and, to distinguish if survival mechanisms are unique to ATEs, across other forest ecotones (OFEs) from the edge of WBP occurrence into the forest. We replicated this design at 10 randomly selected sites in the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains. We also surveyed reproduction in a subset of ATE sites. Mortality was nearly absent in upper ATEs (mean ± SE percent dead across all sites of 0.03% ± 0.03% 0-100 m from the edge and 14.1% ± 1.7% 100-500 m from the edge) but was above 20% along OFEs (21.4 ± 5.2% 0-100 m and 32.4 ± 2.7% 100-500 m from the edge). We observed lower reproduction in upper ATEs (16 ± 9.9 cones/ha and 12.9 ± 5.3 viable seeds/cone 0-100 m from the edge) compared to forests below (317.1 ± 64.4 cones/ha and 32.5 ± 2.5 viable seeds/cone 100-500 m from the edge). Uniquely high WBP survival supports the hypothesis that ATEs serve as refugia because krummholz growth forms escape MPB attack. However, low reproduction suggests ATE refugia function over longer time periods. Beyond our WBP system, we propose that plant populations in marginal environments are candidate refugia if distinct phenotypes result in reduced disturbance impacts.